Trade Copilot — Deterministic Crypto Scanner

Market Cycle Tracker

Historical bull & bear pattern analysis

Days elapsed vs. avg bear duration (414 days) —% of avg

● ATH — Oct 6, 2025 ● Avg bottom — Dec 2026 ● Bull run →

100% does not mean bottom is confirmed — it means the average bear duration has passed. Bottoms can arrive early or late.

Days In Bear

—

Avg across 3 cycles: ~414 days

Current Drop

—%

From $125,836 ATH

Historical Drop Range

−77–86%

2022: −77% · 2018: −84% · 2015: −86%

Est. Bottom Price

$18–29K

If −77% to −86% repeats from ATH

All Historical BTC Bear + Bull Cycles

Cycle	ATH Price	Bear Days	Drop	Bull Days	Bull Gain
2013–2015	$1,127	477 days	−86%	~746 days	+5,800%
2017–2018	$19,665	389 days	−84%	~1,068 days	+11,000%
2021–2022	$69,044	376 days	−77%	~1,061 days	+2,200%
2025–? · IN PROGRESS	$125,836	— days in	—% so far	~800–1,000 days?	TBD

Pattern, not prediction. Each BTC cycle has been less extreme — drops get shallower, bull gains shrink. With 3 data points, confidence is moderate. ETF inflows & macro conditions can alter timing significantly. Never trade based on cycle timing alone.

Days elapsed vs. avg bear duration (365 days) —% of avg

● ATH — Aug 25, 2025 ● Avg bottom — Aug 2026 ● Bull run →

Based on only 2 cycles — treat this as a rough signal, not a forecast.

Days In Bear

—

Avg across 2 cycles: ~365 days

Current Drop

—%

From $4,953 ATH

Historical Drop Range

−80–94%

2022: −80% · 2018: −94%

Est. Bottom Price

$300–990

$990 = 2022 pattern · $300 = 2018 pattern

All Historical ETH Bear + Bull Cycles

Cycle	ATH Price	Bear Days	Drop	Bull Days	Bull Gain
2017–2018	$1,400	~365 days	−94%	~365 days	+17,400%
2021–2022	$4,379	~365 days	−80%	~882 days	+6,000%
2025–? · IN PROGRESS	$4,953	— days in	—% so far	~600–900 days?	TBD

ETH has only 2 complete cycles — low confidence. Both bottomed at ~365 days from ATH. ETH's relationship to BTC is shifting with ETF dynamics and changing tokenomics. The $300–$990 range is wide because the 2018 and 2022 cycles were very different market regimes. Less data = less certainty.

Insufficient cycle data. SOL has only 1 historical bear cycle and it was distorted by the FTX bankruptcy in Nov 2022, causing an unnatural −97% crash. Any projections below are illustrative only — there is no clean historical basis for a SOL bottom estimate.

Days elapsed vs. prior cycle (418 days — FTX distorted) —% of prior

● ATH — Jan 19, 2025 ⚠ Reference only — not a forecast ● Recovery?

Days In Bear

—

Prior cycle: ~418 days (distorted)

Current Drop

−77%

From $294.85 ATH

Prior Bear Drop

−97%

⚠ FTX collapse — not a market cycle

Est. Bottom Price

Unreliable

1 distorted data point — no valid range

SOL Cycle History — ⚠ Extremely Limited Data

Cycle	ATH Price	Bear Days	Drop	Bull Days	Bull Gain
2021–2022 ⚠	$259	~418 days	−97% (FTX)	~600 days	+11,000%
⚠ The −97% drop was caused by FTX bankruptcy (Nov 2022), not natural market forces. This cycle cannot be used as a reliable baseline for future bear depth or duration.
2025–? · IN PROGRESS	$294.85	— days in	−77% so far	Unknown	TBD

SOL projections are speculative. The current −77% drop already matches a normal crypto bear market without any exchange collapse. SOL may be closer to a natural bottom than the distorted 2022 cycle suggests. Watch BTC/ETH cycle positioning as a leading indicator instead.

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